Punters' Pointers - betting tips for the weekend

 

In association with Paddy Power

KEVIN EGAN provides some betting tips as he looks forward to this weekend's sporting action. 

 

The absence of any meaningful action involving Offaly clubs this week means that we have to look a bit further in order to identify our bets for this weekend and the first place we’ll start is the Leinster club football championship semi-final between Portlaoise and Moorefield, a game that will surely bring more than a few neutral supporters to O’Moore Park this Sunday.

When the Leinster club football draw for the year was made, this semi-final pairing looked likely from a long way out and it was particularly likely once Moorefield overcame Athy in the Kildare county semi-final.

However for long stretches of Sunday afternoon it looked as if Longford Slashers would advance at the expense of the O’Moore county representatives. In the end Mick Lillis’ men deserved great credit for retrieving an eight-point deficit against the Longford champions, but the members of the Moorefield management team that travelled to Pearse Park would have been very interested in the manner in which Portlaoise were filleted for three goals in the first half.

Generally speaking, Longford Slashers are a good goalscoring team. In modern club football, most teams score one goal for every ten points that they register on average – Slashers beat that by around 20 per cent in 2013. Moorefield too have been very effective at raising green flags this year, striking 15-91 in seven ties. If we strip away the 6-14 that was scored against Celbridge, they’re still registering 1.5 goals a game and one goal for every 8.5 points.

This reporter was in Pearse Park on Sunday and it was notable how Portlaoise generally dealt with long deliveries quite well, notwithstanding a lack of concentration for the first goal of the match, but they were often pulled apart by secondary runners coming through the central channel.

Martin Nevin and Niall Mulligan both struck the back of the Portlaoise net on the back of runs from the centre-forward position and that bodes well for Moorefield centre-forward Patrick Murray, who is well capable of making those runs and of finishing the chances when they arise. He’s after rattling twine in two games in a row now and, at 9/2 to score a goal at any time with PP, he’s a great bet to do so again.

Those staying in this Sunday afternoon will be treated to a fascinating Munster final meeting between Na Piarsaigh of Limerick and Sixmilebridge of Clare and the Banner county champions will of course be held in good esteem by followers of this column after they obliged at odds of 9/4 against Midleton last week.

This time out they start as 10/11 favourites, while you can bet the draw at 8/1 and back Na Piarsaigh at odds against, which is a little surprising to us.
A big part of why we advised a bet on Sixmilebridge last week was because we felt Midleton were over-rated. Cork sides have a terrible record in club hurling over the last 25 years and outside of Newtownshandrum, they just haven’t been impressive. But just as Midleton were over-valued, now Sixmilebridge are being overestimated on the back of picking up a win against them.

The value of their win last week was no higher than the value of Na Piarsaigh’s win over Passage in the first semi-final, and while Sixmilebridge have home advantage in their favour this week, that’s balanced up by the fact that Na Piarsaigh have had two weeks to prepare and they’ve also had the chance to take in last week’s game and assess the strengths and weaknesses of their opponents.

This game looks like it could be quite tight and we wouldn’t disagree with Powers’ prices of 10/11 and 11/10 – but we would swap favourites. On that basis, take Na Piarsaigh to win at 11/10, or alternatively, if you want a bigger price, back the Limerick club to lead at half-time and win, which is a 5/2 shot.

 

TOP TIPS

*Patrick Murray to score a goal at any time v Portlaoise (9/2).

*Na Piarsaigh to beat Sixmilebridge (11/10).