Offaly capable of surprise win over far from unbeatable Kildare

KEVIN EGAN argues that there are plenty of reasons to believe Offaly can pull off a surprise victory over Kildare in this Sunday"s Leinster senior championship showdown in Portlaoise. Just like Ireland"s economic downturn, he believes the signs are there for people not buying into the myth that Offaly have no chance. Let"s be clear - lots of people saw the current economic crash coming, but no-one wanted to listen to such cautionary words. The anxious cries amidst the din were dismissed as the wailings of harbingers of doom, and thus we carried on merrily on the road to collective insolvency. However, this article is not a party political broadcast - it is merely worthy of note that, once again, the general public are happily buying into a myth, and nobody seems to be pointing out that the emperor has no clothes. The myth, is of course, that Offaly are travelling to Portlaoise in vain on Sunday and that Tom Cribbin"s men will be nothing more than roadkill in the path of the super charged Kildare monster truck which is destined for bigger and better destinations. To listen to the national media, one would presume that this game, along with most others in the Leinster championship is a foregone conclusion and that a Kildare versus Dublin Leinster final is a formality, with only a few t"s to be crossed and i"s to be dotted in the meantime. The past twelve months have seen Kieran McGeeney regain his aura of invincibility and Kildare build up their reputation in a very solid league campaign, all the while Offaly football sliding further and further from the national consciousness. Every local paper in either county has leaned heavily towards a Lilywhite victory (with the usual excessive use of the words blossom and bloom, God bless their imagination) while the nationals and indeed the betting community have done the same. Kildare supporters themselves have been even more confident. The Kildare supporters" online forum is running a discussion on the match predictions of the various contributors and, at the time of writing, each of the nineteen people who made a contribution believed that Kildare would win, with the margins ranging from relatively narrow, through seven or eight points to 'a rout' in one case. All this begs the question, what exactly is the basis for such certainty? Of course, Kildare could win on Sunday. However, the truth is they are little, if any, more likely to do so than Offaly are. Yes, Kildare have had a better league run, while they had to deal with none of the internal turmoil that was to the fore in Offaly back in February. But the value of league form was greatly called into question last weekend, as it was last summer. Yes, they had a good qualifier run last year, but taken individually, none of their wins were impressive while the style of their football was anything but awe inspiring. Offaly"s qualifier performance last year was certainly abysmal, but Offaly in the Leinster championship and Offaly in the qualifiers have been two very different beasts down the years. Certainly, Offaly come into this match with big question marks over many key positions, but Kildare, too, are likely to be improvising to a considerable degree. For example, it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that their starting full-back line will be a makeshift number three flanked by two debutant corner-backs. Yes, Kildare should get the better of the midfield exchanges, but Kildare have had a dominant midfield since even before the era of Mick O"Dwyer. While Offaly are well used to working with less than 50 per cent of the primary possession in most games, and even less against Kildare, it has proved no barrier to victory in the three meetings that have taken place between the sides in recent years. The emergence of Conor Carroll and Niall Smith has also given Cribbin some options to work with in this regard. No more than three out of Ciarán McManus, Alan McNamee, Smith and Carroll will start, meaning that there will be at least one viable option on the bench if either starting centrefield player struggles to gain a foothold. Last year Offaly were unsure of their tactics, easily overpowered and playing without direction. There is evidence to suggest that all three of these problems have been at least partially addressed, though with plenty of work remaining to be done. None of this is to take away from the difficulty of this fixture from Offaly"s point of view. Kildare will bring just as much passion and fervour into this match as one would expect, while the tempo and aggression of their football will be unlike anything Offaly have met this year so far. However, they are far from the finished product, while Offaly have shown signs that they can once again become competitive, even if Leinster titles and All-Ireland quarter final appearances may be a bridge too far just yet. The balance of the forward line will be crucial if Offaly are to succeed this Sunday. Michael Conway and Emmet Bolton are currently the front-runners to fill the wing-back roles for Kildare and these are two players who consider themselves attackers as much as defenders. The half-forward line has been a tricky balancing act for Offaly in recent years and has seen defenders, corner-forwards and midfielders all play there with very few natural half forward line players staking a claim. Whoever gets the start on Sunday at 10 and 12 will have crucial roles since they have to demonstrate the fitness and strength to curtail the attacking forays of their two opponents, while also making sure to keep Bolton and Conway honest at the Kildare end of the field, constantly pushing them back towards their own goals. There will also be considerable pressure on to select three 'corner' forwards in the full-forward line, meaning that considerable work will have to be done to ensure that the three men selected correctly manage their runs, maximising confusion among the defenders but also offering the Offaly players out the field a wide variety of targets. Kildare"s full-back line, as discussed above, is the line least likely to be ready for the intensity of championship football. If Offaly can begin the game at a high tempo and take advantage with early scores, then Kieran McGeeney could be forced to change his system and to bring back extra help into the defensive unit. Any team with a wide variety of midfield options, with high levels of fitness and with the magical footballing ability of John Doyle is clearly to be respected. However, Offaly football has not fallen so far that such a team is beyond matching. A very evenly matched game beckons on Sunday, and if Offaly do emerge victorious, don"t let anyone say that 'no-one could have seen it coming.' Not unlike our current economic situation, the signs are there - for those who choose to look.