Odds make Tubber an attractive bet in clash against Ferbane

Of the five games taking place in the Offaly senior football championship this weekend, none is more important than the meeting of Ferbane and Tubber at O'Connor Park this evening (Friday). Neither of these clubs have any points on the board already, which means that this is essentially a straight knockout fixture with the loser destined to finish bottom of the group, regardless of other results. Paddy Power bookmakers make Ferbane the slight favourites at 8/11, but based on results so far, that pricing is possibly a little too kind to the West Offaly club. Both these clubs were well beaten by Rhode but Tubber put up an excellent performance against Tullamore and could easily have got a result of some fashion in that game. Ferbane, on the other hand, could only try to hang on to Edenderry's coat-tails in their second fixture and while the final margin was the same, the manner of the defeat wasn't. The Reds missed a string of goal chances in that match, any one of which could have shaken off Ferbane. Of course anything is possible in this fixture and readers of the column will be aware that yours truly is of course a member of the Ferbane club so some will suspect poor-mouthing, but the art of profitable betting is very much dependent on being able to take a dispassionate view. The correct betting for this fixture would be something closer to 5/6 or 4/5 for Tubber - 11/8 is well worth taking. Powers also make Gracefield and Ballycumber out to be a tight match and they're expected to offer even money each side here, with 13/2 available about a draw. If a gun was put to our heads we'd probably side with Gracefield here, but Ballycumber played some very nice football against Erin Rovers on Monday evening and both sides looked impressive. As a result we'll leave the Ballycumber/Gracefield match aside, but instead we'll suggest that Erin Rovers at 1/2 are a solid bet to edge out St Rynagh's. St Rynagh's really haven't got up to the pace required this season and up front they just look way too weak. They have the ability to defend well and we don't expect Rovers to rack up 1-15 as Clara did in the last round, but on a straight formline through either Clara or Gracefield, the Pullough club have the edge. Of course 1/2 is not really much use to most punters as a short price, so we've got to look for something to put in with it to make up a treble. The obvious candidates would be Rhode at 1/4 now that Niall McNamee is back and in good scoring form, but Tullamore are much improved this season and in group games, they tend to give Rhode more to think about than most clubs. Even last year when Tullamore were playing badly, they still came close to beating the championship favourites. Of course Rhode are the more likely winners and they could prevail by a considerable distance, but Tullamore are a young and improving team and we certainly wouldn't like to oppose them at such a short price. Instead, feel free to include Clara at 1/7 against Walsh Island. The wheels have come off the Walsh Island bandwagon in recent weeks and they now look like missing out on the knockout stages. Indeed, if it wasn't for the fact that there is no relegation from the senior championship this year, they'd be looking nervously at the table and wondering if Intermediate football in 2013 was to be their fate. The absence of Brian and Rory Connor, compounded by the injury to Gary Comerford, leaves them painfully short on options and they aren't equipped with the weaponry to trouble Clara. Finally, take the Galway hurlers at 4/5 to score the first goal against Cork on Sunday. The Rebels' main weapon this year has been their deep panel and the ability to change things up off the bench. They've conceded goals to every opponent and while Galway have also shown signs of a leaky backline, now that the Tribesmen have hit form, we expect them to burst out of the blocks this week. TOP TIPS *Tubber to beat Ferbane (11/8). *Clara and Erin Rovers both to win, Galway to get the first goal v Cork (2/1 approx).