Unionists becoming more sceptical about Windsor Framework, report says

Jonathan McCambridge, PA

Unionist voters have become more sceptical about the Windsor Framework since the Safeguarding the Union deal, a new report has suggested.

The report from Queen’s University Belfast, based on an opinion poll carried out by LucidTalk, indicated that support for the Windsor Framework deal remains fragile in Northern Ireland.

The framework, agreed between the UK and the EU in 2023, amended the Northern Ireland Protocol and governs post-Brexit trading arrangements in the region.

The Safeguarding the Union deal was reached between the UK government and the DUP the following year to further reduce some checks and paperwork on goods moving from the rest of the UK into Northern Ireland.

The deal led to the restoration of the Stormont powersharing arrangements following a two-year boycott by the unionist party in protest at the protocol.

The report said that half of poll respondents view the Windsor Framework as “appropriate” and “overall a good thing”, compared to just over a third (37 per cent) against.

That number against has grown over the past year due to declining support for the Windsor Framework among those identifying as “slightly unionist”. In February 2024, 51 per cent said it was a “good thing”, falling to 26% in April 2025.

The Queen’s report is the 13th in the “Testing the Temperature” series on Northern Ireland voters’ views on Brexit and the Protocol/Windsor Framework.

Ahead of a UK-EU summit next week, two-thirds (66%) of respondents said they generally approve of the current Government’s policy of pursuing closer relations with the EU.

This includes 66 per cent of “slight unionists”, 88 per cent of “neutrals” and 96% of nationalists. In contrast, 74 per cent of “strong unionists” oppose this policy.

There are also differences between political communities in what they want to see from any UK-EU reset, with unionist respondents who support closer ties prioritising GB-NI movement of goods and “strong nationalists” wanting to see increased UK-EU trade.

Professor David Phinnemore from the School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics at Queen’s, said: “The UK government will no doubt welcome evidence of majority support in Northern Ireland for its pursuit of closer relations with the EU.

“It cannot ignore, however, the evident drop we are seeing in the limited unionist support that exists for the Windsor Framework.

“If that trend is to be reversed, a closer UK-EU relationship needs to deliver on reducing obstacles to the GB-NI movement of goods.”

Professor Katy Hayward, from the School of Social Sciences, Education and Social Work at Queen’s, said: “There have been several notable events relating to the Windsor Framework since our last poll, including those in which MLAs took centre stage.

“The effect seems largely to have widened the gap between unionists and nationalists/others in opinion on the topic.

“And so the Windsor Framework continues to be a political and cultural issue as much as a practical concern.”

The report also found that unionists have differing views to nationalists and others regarding some of the activity of MLAs in the Assembly on the Windsor Framework.

Almost half of respondents (47%) disagree that unionist MLAs were right to vote, in December 2024, against democratic consent for the full application of the Windsor Framework.

However, the poll suggested that 92 per cent of TUV, 94 per cent of DUP and 67 per cent of UUP supporters think it was the right decision.

Other findings include:

– 58 per cent think the Windsor Framework offers unique economic opportunities for Northern Ireland, down from 68% in June 2024. The drop in support from “slightly unionist” is down to 47% from 73% in June 2024, though still higher than “strong unionists” (10 per cent).

– Trust in the UK government has improved, however it remains the most distrusted (68 per cent) and least trusted (11 per cent) of all actors. Views on the European Commission/EU are almost evenly split, with 44 per cent expressing trust and 42 per cent distrust.

– Northern Ireland business representatives remain the most trusted on Windsor Framework issues, with 54 per cent expressing trust and only 16 per cent of respondents distrusting them.

-A majority (60 per cent) of respondents believe that the Windsor Framework is being “undersold in terms of the dual market access opportunities” it provides for Northern Ireland producers.

The poll, using a weighted sample of 1,020 respondents from across Northern Ireland, was conducted by LucidTalk for Queen’s University Belfast on April 25-28.

The sample used is weighted to be representative of the adult population of Northern Ireland. All results presented are accurate to a margin of error of plus/minus 2.3 per cent.