Devolution in Northern Ireland has been ‘disastrous’ – Police Federation chief

By Rebecca Black, Press Association

Devolved government in Northern Ireland has been “disastrous”, according to the head of a police representative body.

At a time of historically low police officer numbers and PSNI budget strain, Liam Kelly accused administrations in Belfast and London of “passing the parcel of blame in a game of unedifying brinkmanship”.

Kelly said the PSNI is facing three years of projected budget deficits over the next three years, with “frightening numbers” from £65 million (€75 million) this year, to £96 million (€110.9 million) in 2027/28, to £106 million (€122 million) in 2028/29.

He said the books “simply cannot be balanced”, and claimed they are “staring at a financial meltdown”, adding: “Our political leaders must share most of the blame for this crisis.”

Addressing the Police Federation for Northern Ireland’s annual conference in Belfast on Wednesday, Kelly also backed a recent challenge by Chief Constable Jon Boutcher to politicians to show their support for police.

He said ahead of the 25th anniversary of the creation of the PSNI in November, “the outlook has never been as bleak or filled with as much foreboding”.

He noted that in November 2001 there were around 7,500 full time police officers serving a population of around 1.69 million, while today there are “disgracefully” 6,315 police officers serving a population of 1.93 million.

“When you remove student officers from this total, the figure slides down towards 6,000,” he added.

Kelly went on to reference the many Stormont collapses over the last 25 years, and went on to claim that a “blind eye was turned to falling police numbers”.

He also claimed that the PSNI “disgustingly remains languishing at the back of the queue when it comes to funding and having effective resources”, as well as referencing the current political failure to agree a proposed three-year budget.

“Devolution was meant to be a boost, a better way of delivering accountable government,” he said.

“In our experience, instead of being a positive step, it has been disastrous.

“We have London and Belfast passing the parcel of blame in a game of unedifying brinkmanship.

“We have Belfast complaining of insufficient financial resources. The police budget is squeezed where continued constrained one-year financial settlements are an obvious barrier to forward-planning.”

Kelly said the PSNI Recovery Plan, which planned to deliver an increase to 7,000 officers by April 2028, is in “grave doubt”.

“By April 2026, the end of year one of the recovery plan, we were supposed to grow by 150 officers so we would have 6,500 in service,” he said.

“Despite the belated funding we’re currently at 6,315 – 35 officers less than where the original baseline was drawn in 2025.

“The next staging post in April 2027 projected we would have 6,750 officers in post. That would require a growth of 435 officers in year.

“On average PSNI conservatively lose around 350 officers per year, so recruitment would have to be in the region of 800 officers to just catch up.

“Let’s be honest – that is now simply not going to happen. Even with the best will in the world, the knock-on effect to get to 7,000 officers by April 2028 has effectively evaporated.”

He reiterated: “This is a crisis. We’re not crying wolf or scaremongering”, adding: “the time for intervention is right now”.

Meanwhile, Kelly acknowledged there could be “more from a Catholic background in its (PSNI) ranks”.

But said he said with “indifferent political approach taken by some parties, combined with community opposition and a terrorist threat to those who take the brave decision, it’s little wonder there’s a reluctance to raise heads above the parapet and come forward”.

He said the reintroduction of 50-50 recruitment would be a “backward step and lead to understandable resentment”.

“Engineering the figures would be a lazy way of trying to fix a societal problem,” he said.

“From this platform today, I join the Chief Constable in saying bluntly that its time everyone did their bit in a more vocal and assertive way to promote a career in policing.

“Those applicants from a Catholic background in particular have to be given specific reassurance from nationalist politicians and church leaders that there is no impediment or threat to them becoming police officers.

“Too often, there’s a rush to criticise, but when it comes to giving wholehearted encouragement and unequivocal endorsement of a career in policing, quite a few usually vocal spokespeople develop a case of laryngitis.

“Their silence is deafening.”

He added: “It’s time for all of them to get off the fence.”